What cognitive phenomenon leads a person to believe that an event is more likely after it has not occurred for some time?

The cognitive phenomenon in question is known as the gambler's fallacy. This fallacy occurs when individuals believe that the likelihood of a particular outcome is influenced by previous events, despite the fact that each event is independent of the others. For example, if a coin is flipped and lands on heads multiple times in a row, a person might incorrectly conclude that tails is "due" to occur, believing that the likelihood of tails has increased simply because heads has happened several times.

This fallacy highlights a misunderstanding of probability, leading individuals to perceive long sequences of a particular outcome as somehow altering the odds of future outcomes. Understanding this phenomenon is crucial because it illustrates how cognitive biases can affect decision-making, especially in contexts like gambling or any situation involving random events. The other options presented do not directly relate to the misjudgment of probabilities based on past occurrences, making them less relevant in this context.