How is the likelihood of events estimated based on their availability in memory?

The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a person's mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method, or decision. This heuristic suggests that if something can be recalled quickly and easily, then it is perceived as being more common or likely to occur.

For instance, if a person often hears about airplane accidents in the news, they may overestimate the danger of flying, because those vivid memories come to mind more readily than statistics showing its safety. The principle behind the availability heuristic reflects that the ease with which examples can be recalled from memory influences judgment about the frequency or probability of these events occurring in reality.

The other options pertain to different cognitive biases or processes and do not focus on memory in the same way. Confirmation bias pertains to favoring information that confirms pre-existing beliefs, the anchoring effect involves relying too heavily on the first piece of information encountered when making decisions, and schema processing refers to how knowledge structures help organize information. Thus, the availability heuristic is specifically concerned with how readily available information shapes perceptions of likelihood, making it the appropriate choice.